Liberal Fortunes

Hillier II

2006-08-15T17:50:00.000-07:00

He is back on my good side.

Hillier

2006-08-10T19:02:00.000-07:00

Gen. Rick Hillier, first I liked him, then he was in spotlight a little too much, and now I am tired of him.

Gerald Caplan noticed this three months ago.

Lawrence Martin has since followed suit. (You can read Globe and Mail Articles, if you link to them via google news. )

Could 18 more months of Hillier hurt Military-Public Opinion relations? This could be awful if public confidence is lacking for our top soldier.

Hmmm... More polls for me to read.

2006-08-02T18:05:00.000-07:00

I told my father that Harpers position for Israel would have ramifications that I believe would save the Liberal party. I figure the Conservatives numbers would stall at 34-37 %, however a deeper look into the numbers would reveal that they are increasing in ridings where the Conservatives have zero chance at winning, while shrinking in Conservative held seats.

Today we have a new poll courtesy of Decima:

Tories 32%
Liberals 31%
NDP 16%

Now it is the summer, and I am not supposed to read too much into it. But Wow, what a quick change, could this poll be a rogue poll? An outlier as they say.

Well, if it ain’t a rogue poll let me interpret this poll for al of ya. The Tories numbers are correct at 32%, the Liberals numbers are inflated. It all goes back to relating Bayes’ Theorem and Gaussian Distributions. It’ll take me pages to explain, and I rather not, just trust me on this one. When you have greater than a two party system, and when voter’s minds think in a two party state, like in Canada, polls can have the weird results during knee jerking shifts in opinion.

The main region I am concerned about is BC, this is the place where I would like strong polling being performed. If we are expecting a minority government forever, this place will decide if the Conservatives win the minority, or if they lose. Or it could be the place that prevents a Conservative majority. It all depends, if the NDP realize that BC, and not Ontario, is the place where the gains are to be made in the next election.

Something I have to get off my chest. Vancouver Quadra is the only Liberal stronghold in BC. David Emersons Vancouver-Kingsway is not. A lot of these BC ridings fell into Liberal hands during the 1993 collapse of the Tories and the NDP. Like many seats in Ontario, they are slowly making their way back to bell weather status.

Who is the Bagman of Outremont?

2006-08-01T11:36:00.001-07:00

That is a bagman. Le Association libérale fédérale d'Outremont, from 2004 and 2005 raised a grand total of $576,080.40.(Not including Federal Transfers, or dnations to electoral districts campaign.) Holy Snickers!!! Holy Tolido!!! Oh my Lenses!!! Awe Fiddlestocks!!!

In 2004, the contributions were $270,490.40, and in 2006 they were $305,590.00.

Who is the lucky MP of this very generous riding? Why it is the former Transportation Minister Jean Lapierre himself.

I am sure Ken Dryden would have appreciated his endorsement.

Need funny read, and want to kill some time. Enjoy this.

Minority Forever

2006-07-28T16:05:00.000-07:00

This should be pointed out to all my three (maybe two) loyal readers. Since taking power, the Tories poll numbers have not jumped at all. Even Bob Rae and the NDP saw their poll number jump to at least 58%.

This should be concern for the Conservatives. In between election, Voters do what is called parking their vote. And it appears voters who didn’t vote Conservative in 2006, haven’t parked their vote with the Conservatives in the meantime. A big shot pollster pointed this out to me, so I thought I would point this out to others.

This is bad news for the Conservatives, the latest Decima poll indicates that the Bloc Quebcois has regained its lost ground. Quebec is taking a second look at the Conservatives, and urban Toronto is a big no no. Majority government may never come

Stupid Strategics

2006-07-26T09:15:00.000-07:00

The NDP needs to learn how to better select their candidates in general elections. In 2006, the NDP had high hopes for the electoral district of Kenora. In 2004 they lost by less than 1000 votes. Their solution to winning that riding, throw a lot of money at it. In 2006 they spent $79,469 up from the $ 34,796 in 2004. But somehoe the NDP finished third.

Party	Candidate	Votes
Liberal	Roger Valley	10,402
Conservative	Bill Brown	8,904
New Democrat	Susan Barclay	8,390
Green	Dave Vasey	710

Table 1 2006 Election Results for the Electoral District of Kenora

Here is why they finished third.

2006 Election	NDP	Liberal	Conservative
No. of votes	534	1827	65
% of vote	21.7%	74.1%	2.60%

Table 2 Total vote of Recognized Native Reserve Polls for the Electoral District of Kenora

If they ran an Aboriginal candidate, they would have won. The would have siphoned votes from the Liberals, and they would have seen an increase in the voter turnout on the Reserves.

Case in point, the electoral district Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, where the Liberals were able to squeak out a victory by running an Aboriginal candidate. Please note that in 2004 the Liberal Candidate was white, and in 2006 the Liberal Candidate was Aboriginal.

2004 Election	NDP	Liberal	Conservative
No. of Votes	223	783	297
% of vote	15.1%	53.0%	20.1%

Table 3 Total vote of Recognized Native Reserve Polls for the Electoral District Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

2006 Election	NDP	Liberal	Conservative
No. of Votes	223	1643	328
% of vote	10.0%	73.6%	14.7%

Table 4 Total vote of Recognized Native Reserve Polls for the Electoral District Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

Election	2004	2006
Votrer Turnout	38%	53%

Table 5 Voter Turnout of Recognized Native Reserve Polls for the Electoral District Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

From 2004 to 2006, the reserve turnout increased from 38% to 53%. The Liberals more than doubled their vote in these ridings, from 783 to 1643.

I am certain that if the NDP ran an Aboriginal Candidate in Kenora, the NDP would win over a lot of Liberal votes on these reserves. Also the voter turnout on these reserves would increase in favour of the NDP.

Why the misjudgment by the NDP. Uhhh… because the party elite are idiots, too fixated with radical groups like OPIRG. As they’ll never expand their eyes wide enough to see the horizon.

Why the NDP well Never WIn Part 2 of infinity

2006-07-24T07:02:00.000-07:00

Okay so Steve Mckinnon is in the same boat with this retraction.

During the last election you may remember David Oliver, the accused Liberal candidate of campaign misconduct. His accusers, NDP federal secretary Eric Hebert and Abbotsford NDP candidate Jeffrey Hansen-Carlson, who have both since then retracted any such allegations.

Hanson-Carlson is young inexpiernced man, who asked to the NDP how to handle his accusations. The NDP must stand behind him, and pay any of the legal bills pending the lawsuit filed against him by David Oliver. He, after all, only acted on the advice from the NDP.

But Eric Hebert, you are the federal secretary, you should know better. You have been in this game long enough to know that being a twat head can get you into trouble. This is another example of the NDP being nothing more than lightweights. Lightweights have no business running a party of significance, lightweights have no business making crucial decisions on behalf of a party, on behalf of its members, and on behalf of its future.

The NDP should not foot his legal bills as he was the top dog who made the poor judgment call. It is not fair to its members at large, that their contributions must be wasted paying the legal bills of someone who should NOT be running the party. Eric Hebert, do the NDP a favour and take a hike.

Your existents in the echelons of the party structure can not do the party any good.

Quick Thought

2006-07-23T19:14:00.000-07:00

Here is the reality folks. Between the last two elections, the Liberals have had their funding to centered to target ridings much like the NDP. The Liberals have pretty much given up on running a strong campaign all throughout the provicne.

Electoral Districts	2004 Expenditures	2006 Expenditures	+/- %
All 30 Ridings with Declared Expenditures for 2004 and 2006 General Elections	$1,684,089	$1,422,828	-16%
Ridings Lost by greater than 10% in 2004	$718,861	$399,116	-44%
Ridings Won or lost by 10% or less in 2004	$833,245	$897,587	8%

Next election, the ballot question won't be do I think the Liberals deserve another mandate. So, with a cash strapped party, the Libs not running a fully competetive campaign throughout B.C. The party that has the most to gain in B.C. is the NDP.

Only if the NDP was smart enough. Only if the party doesn't take advice from NGO interest groups, can they win upto the 1988 levels. Why doesn't the NDP respect that people with an analytic background, might be smarter than them at determining priority ridings?

Why the NDP well Never WIn Part 1 of infinity

2006-07-21T16:29:00.000-07:00

I know mathematically taking a poll of an electoral district is less accurate than a national poll. Gaussian Distributions (a.k.a. Normal Distributions) assumes that samples are taken from source with an infinite amount of elements. (The voting population of Canada is large enough that it can be assumed to be infinite.)

However those people at StratCom, the official Pollster for the NDP, have

HHere is list of polls taken and their actual result. We all hear of rogue polls now and then. In my opinion this is what I call a rogue pollster. Here is a list I have compiled, of polls that can be found on the internet.

	New Westminster—Coquitlam
Party	StratCom	Actual	+/-%
NDP	43.1%	32.6%	-10.5%
Conservative	29.2%	32.9%	3.7%
Liberal	17.6%	27.4%	9.8%
Green	10.2%	5.6%	-4.6%

Table 1: Poll conducted 21-22 June 2004, MOE +/- 7.8 (19 times out of 20) (Link to Poll)

	Victoria
Party	StratCom	Actual	+/-%
NDP	34.3%	31.1%	-3.2%
Conservative	21.9%	21.8%	-0.1%
Liberal	24.8%	35.0%	10.2%
Green	18.4%	11.7%	-6.7%
Other	7.0%	0.4%	-6.7%

Table 2 : Poll conducted 21-22 June 2004, MOE +/- 7.7 (19 times out of 20) (Link to Poll)

	Vancouver Centre
Party	StratCom	Actual	+/-%
NDP	46.9%	32.3%	-14.6%
Conservative	17.7%	19.2%	1.5%
Liberal	30.6%	40.3%	9.7%

Table 3: Unknown date, unknown sample size (Link to Poll)

	Vancouver Kingsway
Party	StratCom	Actual	+/-%
NDP	53.9%	37.3%	-16.6%

Table 4: Unknown date, unknown sample size (Link to article that mentions poll)

From Tab. 1 and Tab. 2, enough information exists to do an analysis of these polls. These polls were conducted one week prior to the E-day. ( While providing analysis of these polls, it shall be assumed that voter’s minds did not change significantly in last week of the campaign. The MOE would be slightly smaller if recalculated given the outcome, which is insignificant to the overall analysis, therefore MOE shall stay as posted on the publication.)

The Victoria poll had the Liberals support posted at 24.8% while the actual outcome was 35.0%, a difference of 10.2%. If the poll was scientific, and if voting intentions did not change, the probability of the getting a poll this incorrect is 1/50. Therefore, with these assumptions, this poll has a 98% probability of being unscientific.

Likewise, the New Westminster—Coquitlam poll which has the NDP support 10.5% above the actual outcome, had the same probability of being unscientific, making the same assumption that voter intentions maintain the same in the last week of the campaign.

Another poll conducted by StratCom, during the 2005 Vancouver municipal elections, had Jim Green poised to beat Sam Sullivan by 56% to 41%.

Why did I write all of this? Well… the consistent inconsistency of StratCom, has to my knowledge screwed over the NDP. (Unable to identify priority ridings and IMHO giving the NDP bad advice.)

Now I have heard a lot of insider gossip about the party. (Jack and Olivia do live down the street from me. after all)

(DISCLAIMER: PURE GOSSIP, MAY NOT BE TRUE, PERSONAL BELIEFS, NO PROOFS TO CLAIM)

This is what I have heard, in 2004, their polling should that Olivia Chow was going to win Trinity-Spadina by a landslide, so they closed down shop and moved all their volunteers to Davenport in the dieing days of the election. As we now know, she lost.

I also heard that their internal polling should Gord Perks had 41% of the vote from decided voters in the 2006 election. So the NDP threw tens of thousand of dollars to Gord Perks hopeless campaign.

Why the FUCK would they do that. This is what I believe, those folks at StratCom, are NGO Granolla stain Hippie folk, produce polls that look favourbally on NGO Candidates. Trick the NDP that Canadians like granola stain folks, and the NDP obliges and gived money to these ridings. (JUST AN OPINION, NO PROOF)

Why the FUCK did the NDP vote against Afghanistan? Well did it occur to anyone that Bob Penner, the founder of StratCom, was a cofounder of the Canadian Peace Alliance. Hmmm… maybe StratCom had a conflict of interest, gave the NDP polling Data that showed Canadians want out of Afghan. (JUST MY OPINION, NO PROOF, I CHEW MY OWN TOE NAILS)

Hmmm… maybe the NDP acted on this data, and voted against Afghanistan.

Why the FUCK can’t the NDP win in Saskatchewan, it's heartland. It’s birthplace. The place where all Dippers must make a pilgrimage. Could it be their internal polling have misguided the party strategy? (JUST MY OPINION, NO PROOF, I ENJOY THE SMELL OF MY FARTS)

I could go on and on and on…. But A no one would read a 2000 page essay by yours truly, and B, I do not want to sued for Libel.

Liberals: Third party Status?

2006-06-24T15:38:00.000-07:00

There is some chatter in the last days of parliament about the possibility of the NDP becoming the main rival to the Conservative in the near future. Well, Bill Graham notes that this same belief from the NDP occurred in the 1960s and 1980s, and this idea will fade away. Not so Mr. Graham, although his political spin is a logical one, this time the NDP is targeting for a different type of voter.

Contrasting the last time the Conservatives got a minority government to this one, a different pattern emerges in terms of the NDP primary opponent.

In 1979, their main rival was the Conservatives. Of the 26 seats the NDP won, the Conservative finished second in 16 of them, while the Liberals finished second in the 10. The majority of the seats the NDP won in 1979, their chief rival was the Conservatives. The focus of the NDP was to win over Conservative and Liberal voters.

Zoom to 2006, of the 29 seats the NDP won, 23 of them the Liberals finished second. That leaves a paltry six seats where the Conservative were the chief opponent. This is a strong shift.

The political landscape has changed much like American Blue and Red states, where Jimmy Carter won Texas to put him over the electoral college, today a Democrat winning Texas is as likely as the Canadians winning the World Cup.

Thus, the NDP will be defending 79% of their ridings against the Liberals. That gives them an incentive to ensure the Liberals are still kicking and screaming for the next 2 years. Add to the fact that 9 of the 11 closest loses for the NDP, where to the Liberals.

The NDP finished a competitive second to the Liberals in 18 Liberal held seats. If voters don’t fear Harper, if voters feel a Harper majority is imminent, then look for progressive voters to park their vote with the NDP.

The NDP also finished a competitive to somewhat competitive second in 23 Conservative seats. These seats are mainly from the west, and if history is any indication about the west, then the Liberal vote will collapse in favour of the NDP come next election. This could result to the NDP gaining upto 5 seats from the Conservatives. (Western ridings of course, and only if they are lucky.)

The NDP are banking on Liberals votes to defeat the Liberals, and to get Liberal votes to defeat the Conservatives in several ridings. All the while the Conservative are determined to hammer away at Liberal seats throughout Canada.

As things stand right now 40 seats for the NDP is a conservative figure, I would go as high and say they could win 50 seats come next election.

As things stand right now, there are 20 Liberal ridings that are for sure losers. Add to that, Stephen Harper wants to win a LANDSLIDE, and will probably win a majority in every province except P.E.I. and B.C.

To recap, the NDP are vying Liberal voters, the Conservatives are doing the same. The Liberals are not sure which direction the party should go. So is it possible? Is it possible to knock off the Liberals? Absolutely! I said it first, again.

Also, Jack Layton never went to Ottawa to sit in opposition.

Liberals caught in a Catch-22

2006-06-21T11:32:00.001-07:00

Nothing is coming the Liberal way these days, and a NDP motion to calling for Rona Ambrose resignation, doesn’t do the Liberals any help. The Conservative consider this a non confidence motion, and are willing to have a fall election should the motion pass.

The NDP refuse to back down and the Liberals are in no position to have an election without a leader. But, if it votes down the motion, then it officially condones the environment policies of the Conservative government.

What to do… what to do… Condone the Conservatives environment policies, thus losing any environment clout come next election. Or, vote with the NDP, and force an election before a new leader is chosen.

Oops... I guess I never thought about abstaining.

Liberals are Twenty Years Overdue

2006-06-21T07:45:00.000-07:00

The Liberal Party of Canada has needed to reinvent itself for more than twenty years. The problem did not start with Ad Scam, or Martin’s hostile takeover of the party, rather its troubles started in 1984 and they have not recovered from that era.

If this confuses you, rest assured I’ll explain.

After the 1984 election, the party recovered in Ontario and the Maritimes. David Peterson became the first Liberal Premier of Ontario in a generation. More than half of its Caucus came from Ontario after the 1998 election.

But the party never really restructured itself federally into an energized electoral machine. It won the 1993 election by default. By 1993, the NDP and Conservatives were facing political collapse of their own.

In 1993, the Progressive Conservatives were suffering from a weak leader, coupled by the emergence of the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec, and the Reform out West. The greatest beneficiary of this was the Liberals.

The NDPs problems under Bob Rae’s premiership, and a weak leader, lead to the party losing official party status in the House of Commons. The NDP spent the next decade rebuilding itself, as it took the Progressive Conservative and Alliance an equal amount of time to merge.

The Liberals success was not by their own doing, rather it came be default. With no other national party to challenge them they simply rose to government. As a result, the party never really learned its lesson. As a new generation entered the Liberal fray, their mentors weren’t sufficient to provide guidance.

It’s like markets in general. A company having difficulty being competitive magically becomes the monopoly. While its competition struggles and struggles to survive, finally emerge as real competitors in the industry, the once mighty monopoly is unable adapt in the competitive environment.

Their problems span over a long period of time. It is not a problem that started under Martin’s leadership, rather under John Turner’s, and for twenty years it has yet to be fixed.

Imagine No Dion, Rae or Ignatieff

2006-06-19T16:59:00.000-07:00

Imagine a Liberal leadership race without Dion, Rae and Ignatieff. As one Liberal blogger said, “down right hillariouss.”

Hilarious indeed, close you eyes and just think about it. Think of the headlines rolling off the press. If you are laughing at the possibility then you don’t need to read the rest of this post. But if you are bewildered and confused, I’ll fill in the blanks for you.

May 30^th – Liberal Leadership Frontrunner Under Fire For Taking Donations From Children

June 5^th- The A Team of Candidates (Volpe, Kennedy, Bennet, Fry) Scrutinized for their poor French.

June 6^th – Martha Hall Findlay Set to be The Kingmaker at the Convention

June 10^th – Poll: Ken Dryden most Charismatic of Speakers

Actually, I am bewildered and confused. I need help filling in the Headlines.

Three easy steps for power consumption.

2006-06-14T09:32:00.000-07:00

I hate when people talk about ways to increase energy efficiency throughout Canada. I hate because all their solutions are so trivial. Yes, they probably would amount to something, like installing insulation in every home in Canada. But, environment junkees are so nearsighted they never ask the engineer for the solution.

I am an Electrical engineer, so here is my two cents, which is worth more than the whole Green Party and NDP combined.

First, if you want to increase household efficiency how about retrofitting the power grid at the household level. Ontario has squandered an opportunity by implementing “Smart Meters”, they could have taken this opportunity to make all households to receive a three phase power source.

All high powered industrial machines use a three phase power source. Why? Because it is 50% more efficient than single phase power supply.

(Take a look outside you window, see those three power lines at the near top of the pole, that is three phase power supply. Sometimes the Ground wire is at the very top of the pole. See how one of the lines is connected to a transformer, and then goes to you house. That is split phase, or for simplicity single phase.. Not to difficult to modify that for the all three phases going to your house, eh!)

Back in the day when electricity was first delivered to the house, the consumer was to initially use products that did not consume high amounts of power, such as a light bulb. However, induction motors have become an ever growing product in our homes, refrigerators, washer, dryer, and the ever demanding Air Conditioner.

The Air Conditioner alone, would consume 30% less power if it were being supplied by a three phase power source.

Another problem governments must solve, is to apply power factor correction methods to the homeowner. Industry is charged by the Apparent Power they consume, not by the Power. Once again, because the increasing use of induction motors by homeowners, this becomes a growing issue for the power grid.

And finally, the distortion created by computers, cell phone chargers, T.V. to the power grid, hurts the efficiency of the power grid. If followed the Europeans, and laced tough standards on the harmonics to grid they can produce, than can achieve another 1% in increasing efficiency.

I’ll stop there, but you get my drift, ask the engineers for the solutions. Don't just be Mr. Trivial.

Also, single phase AC/DC rectifiers are only 81% effiecient, while three phase is 98%. Also with a lot less harmonics to the power grid. AC/DC rectifiers are used in your computers, T.V. Stereo systems, and high tourque moters like a Coffees grinder.

Nova Scotia Election

2006-06-12T06:39:00.000-07:00

The Corporate Research Association published a poll a few weeks back. The numbers don’t look good for the Nova Scotia Liberals as they are polling at a historic low. The poll indicates that they currently are at 20%, never since Confederation has the party scored less than 29%.

The NDP and Conservatives are in a dead heat, with 36% and 38% respectively. What should be pointed out, if these numbers hold come E-day, then I would predict an NDP government. It is simple, the NDP tend to focus on electoral district campaigns, and not the Provincial campaigns. Their vote is not as equally distributed as the other parties, as the NDP support usually comes from pockets throughout the Country.

Take for example 1993, they got 53% less of the popular vote than the Progressive Conservatives, but had 4 times the number of seats. The NDP in Ontario won a majority with only 37.6% of the popular vote.

Now if the NDP do by chance win a majority government, what are the ramifications of this throughout the Maritimes? Will there be a ripple effect throughout the Maritimes? With the Liberals not holding office in any of the Maritimes provinces, could they very well be relegated to third party status in those provinces?

I think it is time the Liberals started to recognize that the Sun may never shine for them again in Maritimes.

I want to know, who else thinks that this could have a ripple effect in the Maritimes?

Joe Volpe on the Offensive

2006-06-08T13:20:00.000-07:00

Joe Volpe is on the offensive. While the party elite secretly point the finger of wrong doing at him. He has chosen to point his finger back at them. The party has decided that no incumbent will be subjected to a nomination process. Joe angry at the backroom culture of the Liberals, on his website writes:

The old-style politics of power brokers, bagmen and backroom boys can no longer have a place in our Party. It is time to give the Liberal Party of Canada back to its devoted supporters and listen to their experiences, knowledge and ingenuity. The grassroots have always been the source of our strength and the time has come to revitalize our connection with them. We must begin by encouraging local members to choose who will represent them in General Elections through a transparent nomination process.

Joe had a leadership strategy, sign up new members for his support, on the premise that they would nominate their own buddy in a Liberal safe seat. This is after all is how he first got into federal politics. In 1984, he ousted a sitting MP in perhaps Ontario’s safest Liberal seat.

First on his list would be to eliminate Roy Cullen. I wonder how many sitting MPs would have been tossed into the unemployment line, if Joe’s wish of riding nominations were to occur in the 40^th general election.

Anyways, Liberals better stop raising ethical concerns about Volpe, or else he’ll throw mud back at them. Do I smell another mini-scandal in the works? Thanks Joe for the keeping me entertained.

Update

Great new Quote from today's Star:

"Everybody wishes it hadn't happened because we were going full steam ahead. It looked like we were doing so much better than anybody had ever expected," said Volpe. "You don't like to have a contretemps like this one here." But he said he is still generating support for his leadership bid.

Joe Volpe must've also made considerable ground in MP John McKay's riding, perhaps he is about to or has overtaken Mckay's riding in Scarbourough. Why else would John Mckay feel the need to comment in his feelings about Joe in today's Star?

"This is not doing anyone in the party any good," said MP John McKay (Scarborough-Guildwood), who is supporting Toronto MP and former academic Michael Ignatieff in the leadership contest that culminates in Montreal the first weekend in December.

Great comment in Tim's Blog:

"The Liberals have Joe Volpe. He's doing for the party what decaying broccoli does for your vegetable crisper."

Volpe Gate Outcome: Liberal Leadership Loses Publics Interest

2006-06-02T12:37:00.000-07:00

The Liberal Blogosphere is hiding behind the allusion that Volpe-gate is a Volpe problem, not a Liberal one. During this time of the year, it is more interesting to watch cucumbers grow than reading the dailies. As a result, papers in desperate need keep there advertisers happy, fill pages with political gossip.

With a looming leadership race, what better than to fill it with leadership gossip. This is as much of a scandal in the Liberal leadership, as it is for Volpe. The Liberal establishment never censured Volpe for his fundraising actions. After all he is signing up more new Liberals than any other candidate. He does hold a lot of clout, he is the outsider ethnic trying to take control of white establishment.

All ethnic candidates have been demoted to B team. Joe is attempting to change that. Although is can’t get recognition from the Blogosphere for his efforts, and is still lacking blogging endorsements, he has hired Jimmy K. as key fellow in his campaign. Jimmy, who claims his direct efforts resulted in singing up 9600 Liberals for Jean Chretien in 1990, seeks to use his muscle for Volpe.

He’s an outsider to the establishment, yet he also represents all the wrongs in the party’s inside. As the Fat Man from Earnscliffe mentioned on Politics with Dan Neuman, there is a ground war and an air war. Although Joe faulters at the air war, he is doing as well as Ignatieff on the ground.

He is Old school. Doesn’t understand cable news, doesn’t understand blogs, but does understand how to truck in ethnic communities to win over riding associations. As everyone cry’s foul, Volpe is signing up more and more members.

Volpe refususal to back down from the leadership, is encouraging potential future donors to back away. Who would dare have their donation scrutinized in same manner as Volpe’s donors, who would want to participate in a party whose brand continues to drop in stock.

Today John Ibbitson wrote:

The Liberals could lose half their seats, and be reduced to rumps in Toronto, Vancouver, English Montreal and Atlantic Canada. The party would be deeply in debt, with less public funding available because it would have received fewer votes; it would probably plunge back into another leadership race; not only would its aura of invincibility have been lost, its very credibility as a major party would be in question.

With the media needing something to do in the lazy days of summer, the leadership race has gotten off to bad start. This race has all the right ingredients to become the Stockwell Day summer of 2000.

The party must now realize it is playing for survival, and work overtime just to be relevant.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
In Closing...This is a good read.

This just in from Quebec: Hot off the press .

This is worth another mention. As so is this.

Once again, this is why Liberals are in big doo-doo, and why the John Ibbitson quote is that much more relevent.

Joe Volpe Making More Gains

2006-06-01T13:57:00.000-07:00

Joe Volpe has just increased his delegation size at the leadership convention.

Huh? You ask.

Well, here is the logic. Joe has been building support from ethnic blocs, and special interest groups. Meanwhile, the other potential leaders are trying to build a grassroots foundation into the party, targeting people at large.

This new scandal discourages potential new members from joining the party. It gives people just another reason not to touch the Liberals with a ten foot pole.

The Irony is that the ramifications of Volpe-gate, affects the size of the Liberals membership base, and not Volpe’s in particular.

Joe Volpe on the Rise!!!

2006-05-31T12:33:00.000-07:00

Something the Blogosphere tends not to recognize is the fact Joe Volpe is running quite successful campaign thus far. His pre-registration fundraising of $152 000, accounts for 79% of all the Liberal candidates pre-registration funds. His closest competitor Mr. Dion, raised a poultry $17 400, nearly nine time as less as Joe Volpe.

Joe Volpe, who tends to refer to himself in the third person, is targeting the ethnic vote. He caught MP Roy Cullen ‘off guard’ when 125 Volpe supporters over took Etobicoke North’s riding association. Each riding association president is an automatic delegate at the leadership convention, chalk up another vote for Volpe.

Those 125 Volpe supporters were new, I repeat new Liberals that Volpe’s team sold memberships to. On top of that, the majority of these new Liberals were from the Sikh community.

Volpe is doing so well, that Denis Coderre has publicly criticized Volpe for his fundraising abilities. (Today in the Globe and Mail, too lazy to link to webpage.)

To my recollection, (my memory might be wrong) Tom Long’s campaign team had determined that Stockwell Day was going to place first on the first ballot. Tom Long then reached a deal with Preston Manning, that whoever finished third after the first ballot, would endorse the other come the second ballot.

I have heard pundits say Volpe will be the kingmaker at leadership convention. But, what if Bob Rae or Dion made the same backroom deal with Volpe, and Volpe outlasts Bob Rae or Dion. Could Volpe get surprise endorsement at convention?

Maybe I am dreaming in Technicolour, but one thing is for sure, watch out for Joe.

Hope: Is it a good thing?

2006-05-30T09:32:00.000-07:00

Ah… It’s that time of the year for my MP to waste trees, with a letter to her constituents. Olivia Chow has now sent two letters to her riding, and not only is it partisan, but contradictory.

In her first letter she wrote, “In the federal election on January 23, people came to the polls in record numbers in Trinity Spadina, voted for hope rather than fear, and placed their confidence in me.”

Okay, pretty cheesy I know... Not statesmanlike, I know... But remember the key word “Hope”.

In her recent letter she writes, “Just before the throne speech, the Prime Minister said he was hopeful that new child care spaces would be created. Hope and empty promises do not create child care spaces. Hope is not a strategy. Hope is not child care. Hope is not a plan. It takes more than hope to create and sustain quality, affordable child care spaces and early learning programs.”

Well, as much as I don’t think the other parties are ‘Fear’. I don’t think proclaiming yourself as ‘Hope’, than several months later denouncing ‘Hope’ to be an empty promise is being a very credible MP. And if 'Hope' is not what you say it is, then why were you voted in?

Polling NDP style

2006-05-28T19:04:00.000-07:00

Do you ever wonder why NDP pollsters seem to think the NDP is on the verge of an electoral breakthrough?

Well, when you ask questions like, "Do you agree that the Island Airport should be closed and the Port Authority's powers be given back to the people of Toronto?". It is easy to see why they just can't seem to win.

Polls here!!!

I urge all people to enter her site, and vote "NO"!!!!

Why you ask? Just to be cheeky.

Nova Scotia Analysis

2006-05-19T08:59:00.000-07:00

Voters in the province of Nova Scotia have a history of being fickle. In 1993, 100% of the provinces ridings went Liberal. In 1997, 0% of the provinces ridings went Liberal. It is no wonder why this province should be of concern to the Liberals in the next general election.

I have already stated that if the Liberals lose big in the upcoming provincial election that would jeopardize the party’s fortunes federally.

The Table indicates the relation between the popular vote, and this illustrated in the Figure below.

From this data, this is what we can conclude, since 1980 the party has not won a seat if they receive less than 34% of the vote. In 2006, the won 6 seats while receiving 37% of the vote.

Using the data from the next Figure, we can also conclude that since 1993, no party has won a seat with less than 28% of the vote.

So why should this be of a concern for the Liberal party. Well, if we are to believe the SES poll, which as of late is highly regarded. The Liberals are down by more than 10% in the Marinetimes since e-day. If we assume that this applies to all provinces equally in that region. A 5% decline in Nova Scotia support could very well shut the Liberals out of the province.

This is just another example of why the upcoming provincial election is that much more important to the future of the federal Liberal party.

Sure you may say that it is only 6 seats. But with the Liberals destined to lose seats in the west, vulnerable in northern Ontario, no bright future in Quebec, this is just another indication that the Liberal Party of Canada is on the cusp of being a regional party.

Afghan Summary

2006-05-17T16:09:00.000-07:00

Stephen Harper is indeed a strategist after. Hastily calling a vote in the house of commons, was for timing reasons, unnecessary. But what it did accomplish was that this soon to be polarizing issue has divided the Liberals. The Conservatives have become the Republicans, the NDP has become the Democrats, and the Liberals have become the Democrats of 2002… Confused… lost… and not sure where they stand on the issue.

The NDP has taken a position that is popular amongst the greatest voting demographic, the seniors. Let’s not forget they were around during World War 2.

Come next election, we know where the Conservatives stand, we know where the NDP stands. But we don’t know where the Liberal stands. Public opinion has not been established yet, so the Liberals position has not been established yet.

Harper the strategist has laid another brick in building his majority.

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Final Afghan vote

149-145 in favour of the yeas. We have a divided Liberal Caacus. From last count the yeas- Brison and Ignatieff.
neas-Volpe, Bevilaqua, Fry, Bennett,Dryden, and Dion.

Yes!!! A leadership issue.

Ontario Liberals

2006-05-17T12:51:00.001-07:00

How did I not see this earlier? The Ontario Provincial Liberals might be in some trouble. I have always believed that the next provincial election would result in a minority government.

But wait till a campaign starts, John Tory might attract the John Crombie, Larry Grossman voter. I believe the best the NDP can do, is ensure Howard keeps a low profile, and try and be seen with Jack Layton as much as he can.

There are a lot of Liberal flag waivers out there that are fixated on a belief that the electorate will realize that the NDP is an ineffective oppoition, returning to the Liberals next time they go to the polls. But, most of polls show the NDP maintaining a strong 20+ plus support. Some poll even had the NDP at 31%. Well, Ontario voters haven't forgiven the Liberals just yet.

Quebec and Ethnic voters.

2006-05-17T09:37:00.000-07:00

Jeffrey Simpson most recent column is does a fine job sifting through the dynamics of the once Liberal strong demographics.

First, the Conservative who can raise five times the amount of the Liberals, are setting up shop throughout the province of Quebec. Not only that, but the NDP is trying (foolishly in my mind) to make gains in Quebec. The NDP is holding a convention their later this year.

The NDP is trying to exploit the divide between the Parti Quebecois and the fledging Action Solidaire.

While the Conservative are looking at establishing a presence with their own organizers, not forming alliances with people like Lucien Bouchard. The NDP is in all likelihood not. My suspicion is that the NDP is maintaining a dialogue with Action Solidaire.

Quebec is becoming a crowded province. With all four parties trying to make noise for the Provinces 75 seats.

If the Liberals choose an Anglophone as their leader, in the next election, the best the Libs can hope for is that they can come up the middle in many ridings.

Second, the ethnic vote is essential to win seats in many parts of the 905 area. If the Conservatives can woo these voters, than the Liberals are in a tremendous amount of trouble for the next election.

Also, the city ethnic vote is vulnerable, as illegal Portuguese workers are being deported; MPs like Mario Silva in my opinion appear non existent on the issue. Representing a riding that is over 50% Portuguese, Davenport is very likely of going NDP in the next election.

The Liberal Party, like all parties, takes their base for granted. While the Liberals are fixated at reinventing themselves, they are forgetting to ensure that the ethnic base is still satisfied with the Liberal party.

Nova Scotia election

2006-05-16T07:29:00.000-07:00

If the Liberals lose big in the Nova Scotia provincial election, the party is bound to be hurt in that province come next election. Let’s recap, if there are only 2 competitive parties in the provincial parliament, and the incumbent party in the federal election is one of the two provincial parties in parliament. Then, the third party gets squeezed out of that province for the next federal election.

Obvious

However, this could be the first time that the Liberals are barely existent in a marinetime province. This should be cause for concern in the Liberal camp. They hold 6 seats federally in that province. These seats are in jeopardy.

This election is more than whether or not the Progressive Conservative government can win an election rather it is an indication on the future federal Liberal fortunes in that province.

Sidenote: Need to know about polling

2006-05-15T07:49:00.000-07:00

As someone who knows a bit about sampling and Gaussian distribution, I think there is something that the everyday political junkies should know about polling.

There where 2 polls conducted between the 2nd and the 9th of May. Both polls were conducted over a 6 day period. If both polls can be assumed to sampled over the same period of time. I think we should examine the science behind the polls.

Polls often talked about being accurate 19 time out of 20, this is what is referred as it's confidence factor.

Example, if I flip a coin, it has a 50% chance of being heads, and if I were to flip it infinite amount of times, 50% of the time it would be heads. But if I were to flip it only 1000 times, 95% of the time heads would occur %46.901 – 53.099%.

Hence, if I flipped a coin 1000 times, 50% of time it would be heads with a margin of error of 3.099%, 19 times out of 20.

But here is the catch, the margin of error gets smaller the further away the probability is 50%. Rolling a die infinite amount of the time, 16.667% of rolls would result in the number 6. But if I were to roll the die only 1000 times, 95% of the time a six would occur 14.36% - 18.98% of the time.

Hence, If I rolled a die 1000 times, 16.667% of the time it would be a six with a margin of error 2.310%, 19 time out of 20.

Note the Margin of error is not 3.099%, but 2.310%.

Using common sense, the more samples one takes, (i.e. Flipping a coin,) the Margin of error would reduce.

Now let's examine these two polls. One has the NDP at 13%, and the other has the NDP pegged at 19%. For simplicity, let's say both polls sampled 930 individuals. The probability that these two polls are both scientifically correct is slim.

If an election were to be called today, and the NDP got 16%. (The average between the 2 polls. ) A scientific poll would have the NDP support between 13.64% to 18.36%, 19 time out of 20.

Both polls are out of the margin of error.

So let's increase the Margin of error to 2.80%, being accurate 49 times out of 50. Both Polls are out of the Margin of error. The probability that these both polls are out of the margin of error is 0.04%, if these polls are scientific.

But to be fair, let's say that if an election were to happen today, an the NDP received 17% of the vote. There is less than an 80% chance that a poll would get say the the NDP had 19% or greater. And there is less than a 99.8% chance that a poll would have the NDP pegged at 13% or lower. The probability of these two polls being scientific is 0.04% chance that these 2 polls are scientific.

It is safe to say that there is a 99% plus chance that one of these 2 polls is not scientific.

Another pet peeve of mine, is the rounding, Anyone who has taken a first year chemistry course, would be deducted marks for the pollsters use of rounding. You can not round a party's support to the nearest percent, than say the margin of error is 3.1% or to the nearest tenth of a percent.

What ever happened to the Grant Devine Tories

2006-05-13T10:51:00.000-07:00

Hmmmmmmmm,

With Auditor's report due out soon, and the possibility of a new scandal. I sometimes think of Grant Devine's government.

Hmmmmmmmm,

A paragraph

Whatever happened to the Tories in Saskatchewan?

Ontario

2006-05-13T09:25:00.000-07:00

In Ontario, if it is assumed that the 14 seats won by the Liberals in the 1984 Progressive Conservative landslide, were indeed safe seats. Since, only safe seats could have survived the 1984 election. With the exception of one riding being merged with another riding, all of which were won in 1988. Factoring in redistribution of these 14 constituencies, all of which were won in 1993 and 1997.

However, the results of 2006 general election, factoring in redistribution, the Liberal party lost 5 of these 14 seats. While 5 of the remaining 9 once Liberal safe seats are to be tough battleground ridings in the next federal election.

Hence, Ontario is in the midst of restructuring its political lines.

Although the LPC is able to maintain a stronghold in GTA, the current trend indicates the party is shrinking in the rest of Ontario. Outside the GTA the Liberals won 19 of 66 ridings.

The only region besides the GTA where the Liberals have the majority of the seats is in Northern Ontario. This is the region where the party's popular vote decreased by only 2.4%. If the Liberal were to lose just 4% of the vote in Northern Ontario, while the Conservatives and NDP gain 2%, another 5 Liberal seats would be lost.

With the Conservatives flushed with cash, and the NDP in better financial shape due to the new financing rules. An area that is usually overlooked as bell weather ridings. An area that traditionally has a low voter turnout. Look for the NDP to allocate resources (people wise) in to the region to get out the vote. Also look for the Conservatives to send those ridings big fat checks to properly run a campaign there. The Conservatives may only win one or two new seats in Northern Ontario. But, with a war chest that is so big, the party doesn't know what to do it, they'll have no problem sending money into that area just to reduce the Liberal party's seat count in the next election.

Come next election, It is highly probable that the Liberals are going to lose atleast 5 incumbant seats in Northern Ontario. 13 of their 19 seats outside the GTA are not safe seats in the next election. With the Conservatives and NDP going on the offensive next election, the Liberals are bound to lose seats in Ontario.

The Liberal party supporter in the GTA propbably is unaware of this, thinking that everything is just fine. But it is not.

	# of Seats	Seats Won	% of Seats
GTA	40	35	%87.50%
Rest of Ontario	66	19	28.79%

Quick Thoughts: II

2006-05-11T11:34:00.000-07:00

Quebec is a Liberal party wasteland in the next election.

Here is the logic, when a party is in power they hire party hacks into bureaucratic positions. During an election these party hacks then take a leave from their job to work on the campaign. Whether they work federally, provincially or municipally, these people take a leave from work. Even Provincial parties with official party status get resources to hire their own hacks.

This why when the Liberals are in opposition federally, and have no provincial representation in the West. They always have trouble winning seats in the West. The NDP tends to be the alternative to the Conservatives.

The Liberal party is in trouble in Quebec. With no real provincial counterpart, and with Quebec voters not viewing the Liberals as the alternative to the governing party, the Liberals are set to repeat history and lose seats in Quebec.

After all, Quebec was the only province where the Liberal lost a net total of seats in the 1988.

This will remain true until the Conservatives pull a Mulroney in the polls, or an Adscam in Quebec.

Me thinks the Liberals are in trouble, don’t you?

Party Fundraising

2006-05-08T10:51:00.000-07:00

Jane Taber’s article about party fundraising, illustrates just how well the Conservative organization is. The party raised 4 times the amount of the Liberals. The Conservatives have more than 5 time as many donors.

Not only that, but the Liberals only raised $220 000 more than the NDP. I am pretty sure that is not including the local riding association fundraising activity, which accounts for a significant portion of the NDP finances.

Also, the average Liberal donation is $203, compared to the Conservatives and NDP average donation of $143 and $85, respectively. Which makes you wonder, which party really represents the party with deep pockets?

The Liberals had 6493 donors, the Conservatives had 37391 donors, and the NDP had 12850 donors in the last quarter. For each individual donating to the Liberal party, there are almost 6 donating to the Conservatives, and almost 2 people making contributions to the NDP. Which again, makes you wonder, how small is the Liberal Party of Canada’s faithful?

Sure the party will increase its membership during the leadership race, but come next year, most of those new memberships will have expired.

Quick Thoughts: I

2006-05-07T14:41:00.000-07:00

Has it Ocurred to anyone that the NDP won a record 12 seats in Ontario. More than it did in 1988.

Of the eleven seats where the NDP lost by margins of 5.5% or less, eight of those seats occurred in Ontario. 7 of the 8 were to the Liberals. Now, when it is known in advance, that the Liberals are going to lose the next federal election, more people well then vote NDP.

I think it is more than just likely to see those 7 seats go NDP or Conservative in the next Election.

Has anyone noticed that the Liberals have less seats in Quebec, then they had in the 1984 Mulroney landslide. Only one of those seats are outside of Montreal area.

Me thinks the Liberals are in trouble, don't you?

Voting Trends in the West

2006-05-07T10:22:00.000-07:00

Voting trends in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia show a distinct pattern. That when the LPC is sitting and opposition, and if the party is weak provincially then the LPC performs poorly in the next federal election. This can be summed up into an equation:

(Liberal Sitting in Opposition Federally) + (Provincial Liberals Don’t Have Officially Party Satus)

Equals Poor Performance in the Next Federal Election

Table 1-4 illustrate the outcomes of federal general elections, given their provincial status. Equ. 1, holds relatively true for each election. They are a few outliers to this rule, which are indicated in the Tables by the colour red. Probable answers to the rule are given with each table.

Province	1963	Provincial Seats	Provincial Party Status
B.C	7	4	Yes
Sask.	0	17	Yes
Man.	2	13	Yes

Table 1: Federal Seats Won in the Three Provinces in 1963, Given There Provincial Status

*John Diefenbaker’s strong performance is attributed to LPC poor showing in Saskatchewan

Province	1980	Provincial Seats	Provincial Party Status
B.C	0	0	No
Sask.	0	0	No
Man.	2	1	No

Table 2: Federal Seats Won in the Three Provinces in 1980, Given There Provincial Status

Province	1988	Provincial Seats	Provincial Party Status
B.C	1	0	No
Sask.	0	1	No
Man.	5	20	Yes

Table 3: Federal Seats Won in the Three Provinces in 1988, Given There Provincial Status

Province	1993	Provincial Seats	Provincial Party Status
B.C	6	17	Yes
Sask.	5	1	No
Man.	12	7	Yes

Table 4: Federal Seats Won in the Three Provinces in 1993, Given There Provincial Status

*In following Saskatchewan election, the Liberals won 11 seats provincially.
**The B.C. Liberals were viewed as a Centre-Left party under the leadership of Gordon Wilson. Today they are considered as a Centre-Righ part under the leadership of Gordon Campbell.

Based on presumption that the data holds true, Table 5 illustrates situation of the LPC.

Province	Future	Provincial Seats	Provincial Party Status
B.C	?	0	No
Sask.	?	0	No
Man.	?	0	No

Table 5: Federal Seats Won in the Three Provinces in the Future, Given There Provincial Status

* Today the B.C. Liberals are considered as a Centre-Right party under the leadership of Gordon Campbell.
**No provincial elections in the three provinces are expected to occur before the next federal election.

This data indicates that with no presence in each of the three provinces, that the LPC is expected to lose seats.

Purpsoe of this Site

2006-05-07T10:16:00.000-07:00

The purpose of this blog is to highlight the gloomy furture of the Liberal Party of Canada. So, if you loath the party, have fun reading this blog. But, if you are a Liberal flag waver, be prepared to have your bubble burst.