Voting Trends in the West
Voting trends in
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Equals Poor Performance in the Next Federal Election
Table 1-4 illustrate the outcomes of federal general elections, given their provincial status. Equ. 1, holds relatively true for each election. They are a few outliers to this rule, which are indicated in the Tables by the colour red. Probable answers to the rule are given with each table.
| Province | 1963 | Provincial Seats | Provincial Party Status |
| B.C | 7 | 4 | Yes |
| | 0 | 17 | Yes |
| Man. | 2 | 13 | Yes |
Table 1: Federal Seats Won in the Three Provinces in 1963, Given There Provincial Status
*John Diefenbaker’s strong performance is attributed to LPC poor showing in
| Province | 1980 | Provincial Seats | Provincial Party Status |
| B.C | 0 | 0 | No |
| | 0 | 0 | No |
| Man. | 2 | 1 | No |
Table 2: Federal Seats Won in the Three Provinces in 1980, Given There Provincial Status
| Province | 1988 | Provincial Seats | Provincial Party Status |
| B.C | 1 | 0 | No |
| | 0 | 1 | No |
| Man. | 5 | 20 | Yes |
Table 3: Federal Seats Won in the Three Provinces in 1988, Given There Provincial Status
| Province | 1993 | Provincial Seats | Provincial Party Status |
| B.C | 6 | 17 | Yes |
| | 5 | 1 | No |
| Man. | 12 | 7 | Yes |
Table 4: Federal Seats Won in the Three Provinces in 1993, Given There Provincial Status
*In following
**The B.C. Liberals were viewed as a Centre-Left party under the leadership of Gordon Wilson. Today they are considered as a Centre-Righ part under the leadership of Gordon Campbell.
Based on presumption that the data holds true, Table 5 illustrates situation of the LPC.
| Province | Future | Provincial Seats | Provincial Party Status |
| B.C | ? | 0 | No |
| | ? | 0 | No |
| Man. | ? | 0 | No |
Table 5: Federal Seats Won in the Three Provinces in the Future, Given There Provincial Status
* Today the B.C. Liberals are considered as a Centre-Right party under the leadership of Gordon Campbell.
**No provincial elections in the three provinces are expected to occur before the next federal election.
This data indicates that with no presence in each of the three provinces, that the LPC is expected to lose seats.
posted by Liberal Fortunes @ 10:22 AM
3 comments
3 Comments:
I cannot speak for the Prairies, but here in British Columbia the Liberals are anything but dead. They may not have a provincial party per se, but both the BC NDP and BC Liberals have many federal Liberals within them. When you consider both of them got 10% more than the federal equivalents, those votes could have only come from one place, the Liberals.
Here in the Lower Mainland the Liberals aren't just strong in the city, but are growing considerably in the suburbs. After the disaster of the NDP provincially in the 90s and the fear of the Conservatives many left wing voters who voted NDP provincially will go Liberal federally to stop the Conservatives. Also even many centre-right voters cannot stomach the social conservatism, which is why centre-right ridings like Richmond, North Vancouver, and West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country went Liberal last election and likely will again. I also think the Liberals have a good shot at knocking off Nina Grewal.
In Alberta their prospects aren't great, but Edmonton did go largely Liberal provincially so I don't think Edmonton is as conservative as the results suggest. In fact I would see most Edmontonians are generally Liberal in nature and the only reason it went largely Conservative was many Liberal voters stayed home in disgust. Calgary and Rural Alberta is off course a different story.
Saskatchewan is only a liberal wasteland because of how the boundaries are drawn up. Since all ridings are either rural or mixed urban/rural the Conservatives dominate. If there was a riding entirely within the city of Regina or Saskatoon, the Liberals would do much better.
In Manitoba, the Liberals have traditionally done well in Winnipeg, so I think they have a good shot at taking back the three Conservative ridings there.
The next Election will be the First time that the Liberals have no provincial counterpart. So if history does in Manitoba, what it has done in Saskatchewan and B.C.. Than the next election will be the first time Manitoba is a Liberal Wasteland
I think the NDP will win a seat before the Liberal do. They are pushing har in Edmonton-Strathcoma.
Even though Manitoba Liberals may not win any seats next provincial election, Gary Doer is ideologically more of a Liberal than Dipper, so they'll get many crossover votes from the NDP. In Saskatchewan, the Liberals hold no provincial seats yet they won two federally. And in British Columbia, I can assure you, the Liberal presence, at least in the Greater Vancouver area, is here to stay.
In Alberta, the Alberta Liberals did win 16 seats in the last provincial election, so using provincial results is meaningless. And yes you are right the NDP does probably have as good if not better a chance at picking up Edmonton-Strathcona than the Liberals picking up Edmonton Centre, although both, one, or neither could happen.
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