Ontario
In Ontario, if it is assumed that the 14 seats won by the Liberals in the 1984 Progressive Conservative landslide, were indeed safe seats. Since, only safe seats could have survived the 1984 election. With the exception of one riding being merged with another riding, all of which were won in 1988. Factoring in redistribution of these 14 constituencies, all of which were won in 1993 and 1997.
However, the results of 2006 general election, factoring in redistribution, the Liberal party lost 5 of these 14 seats. While 5 of the remaining 9 once Liberal safe seats are to be tough battleground ridings in the next federal election.
Hence, Ontario is in the midst of restructuring its political lines.
Although the LPC is able to maintain a stronghold in GTA, the current trend indicates the party is shrinking in the rest of Ontario. Outside the GTA the Liberals won 19 of 66 ridings.
The only region besides the GTA where the Liberals have the majority of the seats is in Northern Ontario. This is the region where the party's popular vote decreased by only 2.4%. If the Liberal were to lose just 4% of the vote in Northern Ontario, while the Conservatives and NDP gain 2%, another 5 Liberal seats would be lost.
With the Conservatives flushed with cash, and the NDP in better financial shape due to the new financing rules. An area that is usually overlooked as bell weather ridings. An area that traditionally has a low voter turnout. Look for the NDP to allocate resources (people wise) in to the region to get out the vote. Also look for the Conservatives to send those ridings big fat checks to properly run a campaign there. The Conservatives may only win one or two new seats in Northern Ontario. But, with a war chest that is so big, the party doesn't know what to do it, they'll have no problem sending money into that area just to reduce the Liberal party's seat count in the next election.
Come next election, It is highly probable that the Liberals are going to lose atleast 5 incumbant seats in Northern Ontario. 13 of their 19 seats outside the GTA are not safe seats in the next election. With the Conservatives and NDP going on the offensive next election, the Liberals are bound to lose seats in Ontario.
The Liberal party supporter in the GTA propbably is unaware of this, thinking that everything is just fine. But it is not.
| # of Seats | Seats Won | % of Seats | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GTA | 40 | 35 | %87.50% |
| Rest of Ontario | 66 | 19 | 28.79% |
posted by Liberal Fortunes @ 9:25 AM
3 comments
3 Comments:
It is true that of the seats they won in 1984 didn't go Liberal. However, the 905 belt has grown exponentially and is a much different place than it was in 1984. Today it is more urban and cosmpolitan rather than rural like it was in 1984. Also Toronto was comfortable with Red Tories, but will not support a neo-conservative party and the socialists are a non-factor outside the Downtown areas. Likewise most of the ridings the Tories picked up weren't by huge margins so while I don't expect the Liberals to pick up the ridings they lost in 2004, I think they can regain most of the ridings they lost in 2006.
Miles you are a very good observer. I remember you at electionprediction.org, I never calculated you accuarcy, but I bet it beat the the websites accuracy.
It is very true that the 905 belt has grown. But it is the 905 belt that swept Mike Harris to power. And the ridings are almost the exact same. I was talking to a top NDP organizer, and t hey are convinced that Harpr is looking to make gains in the 905.
The NDP could win Oshawa, they won't provincially because the Ontario government decided to redistribute the only riding where they finished third.
I think though, after the next provincial election, with John Tory as leader, Ontario will feel a lot more comfortable voting Conservative. This province tends to see the provincial and federal wings related to each other.
But northern Ontario is a place for the NDP to grow, it is home to Howard Hampton, and if the NDP can organize well in that region next election, look for the Liberals to lose a seat here and there.
The 905 belt did go mostly Liberal in the last provincial election. However, I think the issue of social conservatism as well as the fact Mike Harris did well amongst the immigrant community while Harper didn't could make gains there difficult.
Yes my predictions were mostly correct, but I was quite cautious in only predicting ridings I was reasonably certain of. In the case of the 905 belt, I would not want to predict too many of them except for the safe Conservative ones (Durham, York-Simcoe, and Niagara West-Glanbrook), safe Liberal ones (Markham-Unionville, Vaughan, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville), and safe NDP (Hamilton Centre)
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