Hillier II

He is back on my good side.

Hillier

Gen. Rick Hillier, first I liked him, then he was in spotlight a little too much, and now I am tired of him.

Gerald Caplan noticed this three months ago.

Lawrence Martin has since followed suit. (You can read Globe and Mail Articles, if you link to them via google news. )

Could 18 more months of Hillier hurt Military-Public Opinion relations? This could be awful if public confidence is lacking for our top soldier.

Hmmm... More polls for me to read.

I told my father that Harpers position for Israel would have ramifications that I believe would save the Liberal party. I figure the Conservatives numbers would stall at 34-37 %, however a deeper look into the numbers would reveal that they are increasing in ridings where the Conservatives have zero chance at winning, while shrinking in Conservative held seats.

Today we have a new poll courtesy of Decima:

Tories 32%
Liberals 31%
NDP 16%

Now it is the summer, and I am not supposed to read too much into it. But Wow, what a quick change, could this poll be a rogue poll? An outlier as they say.

Well, if it ain’t a rogue poll let me interpret this poll for al of ya. The Tories numbers are correct at 32%, the Liberals numbers are inflated. It all goes back to relating Bayes’ Theorem and Gaussian Distributions. It’ll take me pages to explain, and I rather not, just trust me on this one. When you have greater than a two party system, and when voter’s minds think in a two party state, like in Canada, polls can have the weird results during knee jerking shifts in opinion.

The main region I am concerned about is BC, this is the place where I would like strong polling being performed. If we are expecting a minority government forever, this place will decide if the Conservatives win the minority, or if they lose. Or it could be the place that prevents a Conservative majority. It all depends, if the NDP realize that BC, and not Ontario, is the place where the gains are to be made in the next election.

Something I have to get off my chest. Vancouver Quadra is the only Liberal stronghold in BC. David Emersons Vancouver-Kingsway is not. A lot of these BC ridings fell into Liberal hands during the 1993 collapse of the Tories and the NDP. Like many seats in Ontario, they are slowly making their way back to bell weather status.

Who is the Bagman of Outremont?

That is a bagman. Le Association libérale fédérale d'Outremont, from 2004 and 2005 raised a grand total of $576,080.40.(Not including Federal Transfers, or dnations to electoral districts campaign.) Holy Snickers!!! Holy Tolido!!! Oh my Lenses!!! Awe Fiddlestocks!!!

In 2004, the contributions were $270,490.40, and in 2006 they were $305,590.00.

Who is the lucky MP of this very generous riding? Why it is the former Transportation Minister Jean Lapierre himself.

I am sure Ken Dryden would have appreciated his endorsement.

Need funny read, and want to kill some time. Enjoy this.

Minority Forever

This should be pointed out to all my three (maybe two) loyal readers. Since taking power, the Tories poll numbers have not jumped at all. Even Bob Rae and the NDP saw their poll number jump to at least 58%.

This should be concern for the Conservatives. In between election, Voters do what is called parking their vote. And it appears voters who didn’t vote Conservative in 2006, haven’t parked their vote with the Conservatives in the meantime. A big shot pollster pointed this out to me, so I thought I would point this out to others.

This is bad news for the Conservatives, the latest Decima poll indicates that the Bloc Quebcois has regained its lost ground. Quebec is taking a second look at the Conservatives, and urban Toronto is a big no no. Majority government may never come

Stupid Strategics

The NDP needs to learn how to better select their candidates in general elections. In 2006, the NDP had high hopes for the electoral district of Kenora. In 2004 they lost by less than 1000 votes. Their solution to winning that riding, throw a lot of money at it. In 2006 they spent $79,469 up from the $ 34,796 in 2004. But somehoe the NDP finished third.

Party	Candidate	Votes
Liberal	Roger Valley	10,402
Conservative	Bill Brown	8,904
New Democrat	Susan Barclay	8,390
Green	Dave Vasey	710

Table 1 2006 Election Results for the Electoral District of Kenora

Here is why they finished third.

2006 Election	NDP	Liberal	Conservative
No. of votes	534	1827	65
% of vote	21.7%	74.1%	2.60%

Table 2 Total vote of Recognized Native Reserve Polls for the Electoral District of Kenora

If they ran an Aboriginal candidate, they would have won. The would have siphoned votes from the Liberals, and they would have seen an increase in the voter turnout on the Reserves.

Case in point, the electoral district Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, where the Liberals were able to squeak out a victory by running an Aboriginal candidate. Please note that in 2004 the Liberal Candidate was white, and in 2006 the Liberal Candidate was Aboriginal.

2004 Election	NDP	Liberal	Conservative
No. of Votes	223	783	297
% of vote	15.1%	53.0%	20.1%

Table 3 Total vote of Recognized Native Reserve Polls for the Electoral District Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

2006 Election	NDP	Liberal	Conservative
No. of Votes	223	1643	328
% of vote	10.0%	73.6%	14.7%

Table 4 Total vote of Recognized Native Reserve Polls for the Electoral District Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

Election	2004	2006
Votrer Turnout	38%	53%

Table 5 Voter Turnout of Recognized Native Reserve Polls for the Electoral District Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

From 2004 to 2006, the reserve turnout increased from 38% to 53%. The Liberals more than doubled their vote in these ridings, from 783 to 1643.

I am certain that if the NDP ran an Aboriginal Candidate in Kenora, the NDP would win over a lot of Liberal votes on these reserves. Also the voter turnout on these reserves would increase in favour of the NDP.

Why the misjudgment by the NDP. Uhhh… because the party elite are idiots, too fixated with radical groups like OPIRG. As they’ll never expand their eyes wide enough to see the horizon.

Why the NDP well Never WIn Part 2 of infinity

Okay so Steve Mckinnon is in the same boat with this retraction.

During the last election you may remember David Oliver, the accused Liberal candidate of campaign misconduct. His accusers, NDP federal secretary Eric Hebert and Abbotsford NDP candidate Jeffrey Hansen-Carlson, who have both since then retracted any such allegations.

Hanson-Carlson is young inexpiernced man, who asked to the NDP how to handle his accusations. The NDP must stand behind him, and pay any of the legal bills pending the lawsuit filed against him by David Oliver. He, after all, only acted on the advice from the NDP.

But Eric Hebert, you are the federal secretary, you should know better. You have been in this game long enough to know that being a twat head can get you into trouble. This is another example of the NDP being nothing more than lightweights. Lightweights have no business running a party of significance, lightweights have no business making crucial decisions on behalf of a party, on behalf of its members, and on behalf of its future.

The NDP should not foot his legal bills as he was the top dog who made the poor judgment call. It is not fair to its members at large, that their contributions must be wasted paying the legal bills of someone who should NOT be running the party. Eric Hebert, do the NDP a favour and take a hike.

Your existents in the echelons of the party structure can not do the party any good.

Quick Thought

Here is the reality folks. Between the last two elections, the Liberals have had their funding to centered to target ridings much like the NDP. The Liberals have pretty much given up on running a strong campaign all throughout the provicne.

Electoral Districts	2004 Expenditures	2006 Expenditures	+/- %
All 30 Ridings with Declared Expenditures for 2004 and 2006 General Elections	$1,684,089	$1,422,828	-16%
Ridings Lost by greater than 10% in 2004	$718,861	$399,116	-44%
Ridings Won or lost by 10% or less in 2004	$833,245	$897,587	8%

Next election, the ballot question won't be do I think the Liberals deserve another mandate. So, with a cash strapped party, the Libs not running a fully competetive campaign throughout B.C. The party that has the most to gain in B.C. is the NDP.

Only if the NDP was smart enough. Only if the party doesn't take advice from NGO interest groups, can they win upto the 1988 levels. Why doesn't the NDP respect that people with an analytic background, might be smarter than them at determining priority ridings?